honestly, my gut is telling me that ultimately people will shift back to Clinton. the flirtation with Obama is about idealism and hope, things that are intangible, but as voting approaches, they're going to remember that the problems in their lives and with the country are actually quite tangible and so the experience thing will return to prominence in their decision. to ensure this happens, Clinton has to regain confidence at tomorrow's debate and Obama needs to be a bit stumbly but that's my gut as of now. that's not to say she'll win Iowa though. we could actually see an Obama Iowa win. her second choice numbers there are miserable -- ie in freaky Iowa, supporters of candidates who don't reach 15% need to then choose their 2nd choice candidate -- Edwards dominates on that measure. but she may perform better than expected and then win NH and then SC will be essentially a tie b/c of black voters and then she'll win Nevada and going into Feb 5th it will be a two way race ultimately going to Clinton. and she chooses Obama as her VP choice and they win. that's, right now, half gut and half wishful thinking.
I don't think it's likely right now (that was part of the wishful thinking part) but if he does run a strong 2nd I think it would be hard for her to justify not choosing him. of course, if they really are enemies it won't happen. problem is, Clinton choosing some middle of the road lameass like Vilsack would greatly disappoint me. I'd really like her to use the vp slot to give a nod to the left (Feingold?) or to the future of the party (Jim Webb? Ted Strickland?) I am worried it will be Vilsack or Bayh though. How about you? Who are you leaning toward btw?
sweet. he's awesome, I just don't know if I see him as president. I don't know, it's weird. I'd love for there to be a real substantive reason for feeling that way but there sort of isn't.
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honestly, my gut is telling me that ultimately people will shift back to Clinton. the flirtation with Obama is about idealism and hope, things that are intangible, but as voting approaches, they're going to remember that the problems in their lives and with the country are actually quite tangible and so the experience thing will return to prominence in their decision. to ensure this happens, Clinton has to regain confidence at tomorrow's debate and Obama needs to be a bit stumbly but that's my gut as of now. that's not to say she'll win Iowa though. we could actually see an Obama Iowa win. her second choice numbers there are miserable -- ie in freaky Iowa, supporters of candidates who don't reach 15% need to then choose their 2nd choice candidate -- Edwards dominates on that measure. but she may perform better than expected and then win NH and then SC will be essentially a tie b/c of black voters and then she'll win Nevada and going into Feb 5th it will be a two way race ultimately going to Clinton. and she chooses Obama as her VP choice and they win. that's, right now, half gut and half wishful thinking.
Given the seeming bitter rancor between them, is a Clinton-Obama ticket likely?
I don't think it's likely right now (that was part of the wishful thinking part) but if he does run a strong 2nd I think it would be hard for her to justify not choosing him. of course, if they really are enemies it won't happen. problem is, Clinton choosing some middle of the road lameass like Vilsack would greatly disappoint me. I'd really like her to use the vp slot to give a nod to the left (Feingold?) or to the future of the party (Jim Webb? Ted Strickland?) I am worried it will be Vilsack or Bayh though. How about you? Who are you leaning toward btw?
Feeling a serious wave of Obamania. Must have been the Oprah Effect.
sweet. he's awesome, I just don't know if I see him as president. I don't know, it's weird. I'd love for there to be a real substantive reason for feeling that way but there sort of isn't.
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